Pepper prices rise due to supply shortages

The survey showed that pepper prices in the domestic market in the Central Highlands slowed down, ranging from 83,000 – 85,500 VND/kg, unchanged from yesterday. Specifically, the price of Chu Se pepper (Gia Lai) continues to be purchased at 83,000 VND/kg. Dak Lak pepper price and Dak Nong pepper price are purchased at 85,500 VND/kg.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices range from 85,000 – 86,000 VND/kg. In particular, pepper prices in Ba Ria – Vung Tau are at 85,000 VND/kg; Binh Phuoc pepper price leveled off at 86,000 VND/kg. This level increased by 2,500-3,000 VND compared to the previous day.

According to forecasts, in the near future, pepper prices may increase further due to supply shortages
Around the world, the pepper market is at a period of high prices. For Indonesian pepper, one tonne of Lampung black pepper held at $3,906, Muntok white pepper at $6,159. The price of Brazilian black pepper ASTA 570 continues to remain unchanged at $ 3,000 / ton.

For Malaysian pepper, the price of one ton of Kuching ASTA black pepper remained stable at 4,900 USD and ASTA white pepper was 7,300 USD. This price is also higher than Vietnam’s exports.

Meanwhile, the export price of Vietnamese black pepper of 500 g/l today traded at 3,900 USD/ton, with 550 g/l trading at 4,000 USD/ton, ASTA white pepper price traded at 5,700 USD/ton.

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), pepper prices increased sharply due to high demand, orders increased while inventories declined. The new crop is in the harvest season, but Vietnam’s pepper production this year is likely to decrease by about 10-15% to 160,000-165,000 tons.

Businesses believe that pepper prices can reach VND 95,000-100,000 per kg and return to the golden age like coffee when the influence of El Nino reduces the productivity of agricultural products. However, pepper prices will hardly increase in the long term when the upcoming consumption demand of countries around the world may decline due to the impact of economic crisis from geopolitical conflicts in some regions.

VPSA forecasts that by 2025, the export turnover of the whole pepper and spice industry will reach about 2 billion USD, with a total output of 400,000-500,000 tons.

The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that it is estimated that Vietnam’s pepper exports in January 2024 will reach 20 thousand tons, worth $ 79 million, down 1.4% in volume, but up 1.9% in value compared to December 2023; Compared to January 2023, it will increase by 60.2% in volume and 83.9% in value.

The average export price of Vietnam’s pepper in January 2024 is estimated at 3,953 USD / ton, up 3.4% compared to December 2023 and up 14.8% compared to January 2023.

In terms of export category structure, in 2023, Vietnam will mainly export black pepper, accounting for 69.51% of the total volume and accounting for 70.67% of the country’s total pepper export turnover in 2023. Therefore, black pepper export growth has had a positive impact on the whole industry.

The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) forecasts that Vietnam’s pepper production in 2024 will decrease by about 10-15% to 160,000-165,000 tons.

Meanwhile, in Q1 2024, purchases from Western countries are likely to increase again to replenish inventories, at the same time that consumer stocks in the market may have been depleted. These factors are expected to push up world pepper prices in general, Vietnamese pepper prices increase markedly, possibly reaching VND 100,000 / kg this year.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, pepper planting area in Vietnam in 2023 will reach 115 thousand hectares, down 5 thousand hectares compared to 2022; Production in 2023 will reach 190 thousand tons, up 3.8% compared to 2022.

The pepper harvest in 2024 has started in some districts of Dak Nong province, but the amount of harvest is scattered in some districts and not much.

Due to the influence of climate change, the harvest in 2024 is slower than 2023, it is expected that Vietnam’s pepper production in 2024 will only reach 170,000 tons, down 10.5% compared to 2023. Pepper prices in the domestic market increased due to limited supply.


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